BLOG POST
19 April 2021
Artificial Intelligence and the International Balance of Power
BLOG POST
19 April 2021
Artificial Intelligence and the International Balance of Power
Source: Forbes
Fellow
Foreign Policy Initiative BH
In his address to students on the first day of a new school year in Russia in 2017, Vladimir Putin touched upon the issue of Artificial Intelligence (AI), stating that it represents both vast opportunities and unpredictable threats, and emphasizing that “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world”. This illustrates the extent to which AI may be a genuine game-changer with an impact on the balance of power that should not be overlooked, as it may be hard to overturn.
So, what exactly is AI? Simply put, AI can be defined as the utilization of computers with the aim of reproducing human behavior for which intelligence is necessary. Extant scholarly literature mostly focuses on narrow applications of AI – a specific type of algorithms meant to perform single specific tasks It is precisely this sort of AI that many believe to be the most likely to have an influence on militaries in the sense of elevating the pace of inter-state fighting.
Various analysts suggest that the ramifications of the AI revolution on the global level would be observed in a more intensive inter-state competition and a shift in the existing balance of power. Some even claim that AI will be the subject of the next space race, reminiscent of the 20th-century competition between the USA and the Soviet Union. In addition, attention is being drawn to the fact that many companies that are making substantial breakthroughs within the AI field are refusing to be affiliated with military organizations. As a result, if AI led by commercial needs keeps stimulating technological revolution, all headway made in AI is expected to disseminate more quickly across the world’s militaries. Conversely, the breakthroughs in AI that rest on research for military purposes are inasmuch more resistant to imitation. This automatically implies that the military that manages to acquire a first-mover advantage in the application of AI is bound to retain its advantageous status vis-à-vis other states for a longer period of time. By the same token, if the dominant militaries do not manage to integrate AI into their national security strategies, the chances of the balance of power being upset are significantly larger. Currently, while China and Russia are pouring money into AI research and development, intent on achieving military dominance, the US, although not a passive bystander, is struggling to maintain its reputation as the world’s leading military power. The EU states, on the other hand, are under-investing in AI R&D.
Even though the international competition is frowned upon, a large breakthrough in AI in the right hands might actually be a factor of stability for the entire system, much like nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, they were, by many, described as such. The Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine was deeply ingrained into the minds of the leaders of the US and the Soviet Union. Despite the numerous crises that had occurred, none of them resulted in a direct military confrontation or a nuclear war, which is emblematic of the fear of mutual annihilation that guided the moves of the leaders of both sides. Since a major discovery in AI would provide a huge source of leverage for anyone who makes it, it is of utmost importance that authoritarian states do not get there first. The US has to keep its pace, and the countries of the EU should step up their game if they want to be seen as a relevant global player in the system which may soon come to be ruled by AI.
Considering that the perceptions and interpretations of AI and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are divergent, against the backdrop of ambiguity of rules for dealing with AI, or the lack thereof, it can be inferred that the world is still in a critical stage in relation to these technological devices. In order to address the rising relevance of AI, what is now needed is a unified effort of multiple stakeholders. Apart from government agencies, civil society organizations, research institutes, and private businesses, as well as the media, should be included. Equally important is to communicate the growing importance of AI, as well as its possible impact on inter-state relations, through public diplomacy channels. In addition, it is necessary to engage other states in bilateral and multilateral dialogue in order to review different perspectives on the matter at hand, and also to work toward aligning policy responses. Furthermore, any coordinated action that may be aimed at countering perils associated with AI should be performed through international organizations, which might, at the same time, pave the way toward the establishment of binding international law in this area.
Although military applications of AI are still in their infancy and it is hard to make predictions as to what its effects will be, what most researchers and experts on this topic can agree on is that AI is a force to be reckoned with. In light of this, its development should not be left unchecked; rather, it requires our attention and a continuous reassessment of its potential impact. Moreover, it is important that all the measures taken reflect the delicate nature of the matter at hand. While making decisions aimed at regulating these technologies, the leading actors must keep in mind that AI technologies are a double-edged sword, so as not to neglect either the benefits that can stem from their use or their potentially devastating effects.
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