EU member states are being challenged with the greatest health and economic crisis in centuries. Among others, the candidate countries, as well as those aspiring to become EU candidate countries, are facing atypical challenges as a result of COVID-19 pandemics. It is unquestionable whether the pandemics will affect the integration process or not, but rather to what extent and in what form will it affect the integration process.
In the case of Kosovo, the greatest damage was done in the implementation of the Stabilisation Association Agreement (SAA) which is Kosovo’s first contractual agreement with the EU. SAA covers all domains of governance and introduces the relationship framework between Kosovo and the EU until full membership in the EU. On these grounds, the EU ensures that the governing mechanisms of an aspiring country meet the standards of the European entity.
That being said, year 2020 can be considered as a year lost in the aspect of implementation of the SAA activities and the set priorities. Reforms in education, in health, fighting crime and corruption and reformation of the judiciary are no longer key priorities of Kosovo.
Fighting pandemics, with saving of lives being the common denominator, constitutes the key corpus of social and political life. On such premise, the integration process shall by all means suffer delays which will have a negative and long-term impact.
The reforms in every area will be more difficult to implement. Actually, Kosova has in normal conditions marked stagnation in implementation of activities and in accomplishing the SAA priorities. Year 2019 has marked the lowest level of implementation of the SAA since 2016 when it entered into force. With the new developments created as a result of the pandemics, 2020 may set a new negative record in this aspect.
COVID-19 impact might have implications in the democratic functioning of the central institutions and in the political life in general. This is more of a case in countries with not entirely consolidated democracies, as is the case with Kosovo and with most of countries in the region. In a longer COVID-19 dominated period of time, even the tendency for abuse of power is greater.
From the global level of analysis point of view, Kosovo may not have the full attention of the EU and of the member states about the integration process. With a declining economy and an aggravated health system, member states will primarily focus on solving their own problems, whilst Kosovo and the regional countries will be on the EU radar for recuperation of damages from the pandemics. The enlargement process will take time to be restored as an EU important agenda, and the same applies for all Western Balkan countries.
Although a €3.3 billion package of assistance will be allocated to the benefit of the region, alongside a recuperation plan after the pandemics in the amount of €1.5 billion from the European Bank of Investments. This is a positive development which marks the EU presence in the Western Balkan region. It does not, however, necessarily guarantee an acceleration and same continuation of the integration process.
The Zagreb Summit, virtually held on 6th May, 2020, was a significant indicator of COVID-19 pandemics reflection and the impact it will have in the region in general in terms of the enlargement process. The Summit was initially envisaged as an opportunity dedicated to the enlargement policy and achieving of further progress from the candidate members and the potentially candidate members. However, the objectives of the Zagreb Summit were shattered with the burst of the COVID-19 pandemics.
The agenda was therefore adapted and developed around three segments: response to the health crisis and the recuperation plan, European perspective of the region and commitment of the Western Balkan countries for reforms. Moreover, the term enlargement or accession was not included anywhere in the joint statement. The pandemics will extend the negotiation process for candidate countries and it will also cause delays in the implementation of the acquis communautaire and accomplishment of the required reforms from this process.
While the EU financial aid and commitment to endure the crisis may provide an alignment with the countries in the region, and with Kosovo in particular, the integration and accession process will not be a European priority in the coming months, or even years perhaps. In this aspect, the long-term negative impact of COVID-19 will burden the regional countries and Kosovo. With the present rhythm, it seems that the joining point of member states will be ‘pandemics first’.
Based on the current situation, it seems that in the months and years to come, COVID-19 will be the political, economic, social and environmental driving force of the EU agenda. In this scenario, the pandemics shall have a long-term impact on Kosovo and the region in general.
From the internal aspect, there will be delays in implementation of reforms, requirements and obligations set by the EU, and from the external aspect, the European integration process of these countries will not be EU’s primary priority.
The impact of COVID-19 pandemics in this aspect will be in form and in substance. Predictability of long-term implications is hard to measure, but the first indicators are not promising.
